Friday, July 24, 2009
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Bulk REO and NOTES for Sale
As all thing grow and Change I have to make a few adjustments. As of this week the Bulk REO and NOTES for Sale inventory will move to Facebook.
We have some changes beginning this week to get the latest information on REO & Notes Inventories.
I have established a Private Group on Facebook.com called "Bulk REO and NOTES for Sale". To continue to receive this information you will need to join Facebook (Free) and send me (Paul Lucero) I am the bald guy with the glasses.
I will review each request and will either approve the group membership for you or call for more information.
The reason for change is simple. I have observed that the lists which are provided to you and which do contain very limited privileged information have been circulated in total and this is not acceptable. Please note that I know many of you will not want join another web site but this is essential protect our sources and improve your ability to get the deal done
As per the pervious message there is one more detail. To get access to the Group as it will not show up in a search of Facebook. Once you join you will need to search for me and send me a friend request. I will do what is required to get you access.
We have some changes beginning this week to get the latest information on REO & Notes Inventories.
I have established a Private Group on Facebook.com called "Bulk REO and NOTES for Sale". To continue to receive this information you will need to join Facebook (Free) and send me (Paul Lucero) I am the bald guy with the glasses.
I will review each request and will either approve the group membership for you or call for more information.
The reason for change is simple. I have observed that the lists which are provided to you and which do contain very limited privileged information have been circulated in total and this is not acceptable. Please note that I know many of you will not want join another web site but this is essential protect our sources and improve your ability to get the deal done
As per the pervious message there is one more detail. To get access to the Group as it will not show up in a search of Facebook. Once you join you will need to search for me and send me a friend request. I will do what is required to get you access.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Bulks sales mean properties Float in the System
Every day I talk to many people pursuing the purchase of bulk product. Homes, apartments, retail and other. One of the most common things I hear is this:
"I saw that property before, I saw it when it was X and you want me to buy it at XX." Yes my friends these buyers have for months called me out and demanded fresh product. Truthfully, I have to ask you to consider the wisdom of this line of reasoning.
What the buyer is really saying is that I had a chance to buy this cheaper than this! Now I ask you is it the sellers fault that the buyer delayed or blew a purchase? I think not but it does say a lot about the quality of the buyers.
Good buyers see the problem after experiencing personally a couple of times. But clearly there are many new faces coming to this market place every day and they do not know the nature of this very imperfect market place.
The Imperfect market place is full of conflict and faulty data. What is an imperfect Market?
"A market where information is not quickly disclosed to all participants in it and where the matching of buyers and sellers isn't immediate. Generally speaking, it is any market that does not adhere rigidly to perfect information flow and provide instantly available buyers and sellers."
Because of this nature it is absolutely necessary that results be rewarded and poor performance rejected. I have as of this date received more than 80 LOIs and delivered 28 tapes for review to buyers that have correctly completed the necessary forms and their NCND's.
The timing of this is the critical buyers that take days to complete a form or which make issues of process do not close deals unless I make a special effort to get them the deal. I make the effort as offer as possible but due to time constraints I less and less time to help.
Why do tapes and properties continue to float in the system? Because they were bought once repackaged, then repackaged again and sold again.
I have seen some AZ, MI, UT and OH properties float for 4 months in 4 to 5 slightly different or almost identical tapes. The prices slowly rise and the buyers which had a great opportunity 3 months ago are now upset that today I gave them a tape which contained properties they have seen. Floaters are everywhere and we all need to understand that you get one shot at the lowest price. You passed on it and you had access to it or at least a shot at buying it. That is a shame!
Next!!
The Price is the door not the prize. Today I had three buyers looking at a sun belt tape that was over priced by the financial institution selling it.
I tell everyone the same thing. At every office private investor or Bank there is a person that can and does match the numbers on LOI offers with the column that has their price.
Many of these people are overworked, they are tired and they do not care about the time or the sweat invested in the generation of the LOI they only care about the total price.
LOI's are important and should be made on the basis of a good faith estimate made by the seller but subject to the due diligence of the buyer.
This process always adjusts the values inline with the market on the date of sale and the associated risk discount the seller must make to attract legitimate offers. The Price is the door not the prize.
Be well and make it a win win for everyone!
Monday, July 6, 2009
Bulk REO Storm Clouds building FAST!!!
I have to admit that every day I am looking for good news. Instead, I see crazy Larry on Americas Financial Channel talking about Green Shoots and I know that deep down inside that Pink tie of his is cutting off the blood supply to his brain. The media is scared and do you know why? Because their revenues are in the toilet and the CEO’s have see their friends commit acts that history may very well judge as criminal. Not much to worry about you know!!! And in the mists of this the Consumer is spent, wasted and over taxed. So it is time to get down to business and make some serious money.
Today, I read this article on the LA time site at http://www.blogger.com/www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosure4-2009jul04,0,5145254.story
"Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike! " You think this is New Again!
This is madness the West Coast’s largest newspaper could not do any real reporting back in 2007 to see the bubble busting tell tales pouring out the seams of Government and Wall Street.
What is going on now!!
They write this today, "Few people would venture a guess on the magnitude of foreclosure increases. Part of that will be driven by the job market and the financial condition of so-called prime borrowers and homeowners holding adjustable-rate mortgages, both of which are showing more stress."
If times were not so tough I would be laughing. Then I read this, California puts 90-day hold on foreclosures.
“California is imposing a 90-day moratorium on housing foreclosures under a new law that took effect Monday. The law is expected to make lenders try harder to keep borrowers in their homes. Lenders must prove they tried to modify the delinquent loans before they can begin foreclosing.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-briefs16-2009jun16,0,7080086.story
I did a double take, didn’t the Californian’s already do this back in 2008.
Now that was with the help of Washington’s reality challenged Congress. This is preposterous! Every time the government steps in with direct action all that happens is, more delays, making the duration of this problem grow beyond all expectations. Every time!
Now that we have this on the table you must know that there will be more than 3 million new foreclosed homes in 2009-10 time frame. No government intervention can stop this fact. Bring on the Bad Bank it does not matter. We have a second wave of foreclosures and new major challenge in addition to the sub-prime mess (See last weeks posting below.
I remain optimistic and we will all have a great opportunity to make money. The Banks and Hedge funds will buy and sell and as they do we will see deal like never before. Just remember the golden rule. Everybody needs to win in business! The Zero Sum Game is trash. Find partners that know how to work their market and you will make money.
Also learn to laugh and be happy cause the government can not tax that!!!
Today, I read this article on the LA time site at http://www.blogger.com/www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosure4-2009jul04,0,5145254.story
"Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike! " You think this is New Again!
This is madness the West Coast’s largest newspaper could not do any real reporting back in 2007 to see the bubble busting tell tales pouring out the seams of Government and Wall Street.
What is going on now!!
They write this today, "Few people would venture a guess on the magnitude of foreclosure increases. Part of that will be driven by the job market and the financial condition of so-called prime borrowers and homeowners holding adjustable-rate mortgages, both of which are showing more stress."
If times were not so tough I would be laughing. Then I read this, California puts 90-day hold on foreclosures.
“California is imposing a 90-day moratorium on housing foreclosures under a new law that took effect Monday. The law is expected to make lenders try harder to keep borrowers in their homes. Lenders must prove they tried to modify the delinquent loans before they can begin foreclosing.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-briefs16-2009jun16,0,7080086.story
I did a double take, didn’t the Californian’s already do this back in 2008.
Now that was with the help of Washington’s reality challenged Congress. This is preposterous! Every time the government steps in with direct action all that happens is, more delays, making the duration of this problem grow beyond all expectations. Every time!
Now that we have this on the table you must know that there will be more than 3 million new foreclosed homes in 2009-10 time frame. No government intervention can stop this fact. Bring on the Bad Bank it does not matter. We have a second wave of foreclosures and new major challenge in addition to the sub-prime mess (See last weeks posting below.
I remain optimistic and we will all have a great opportunity to make money. The Banks and Hedge funds will buy and sell and as they do we will see deal like never before. Just remember the golden rule. Everybody needs to win in business! The Zero Sum Game is trash. Find partners that know how to work their market and you will make money.
Also learn to laugh and be happy cause the government can not tax that!!!
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Bulk Commercial & Retail is coming
The banking industry has in my limited opinion done a very poor job of managing the sales of Bulk SFR related properties. The market is imperfect and flawed and has created an intermediary system that has no rules and which is populated with more greed and broker chains than one could have thought possible 18 months ago.
We have been in this business long enough to know the signs of impending seed changes. The commercial and retail market place has until now only been marginally impacted by the large numbers of lost tenants and business bankruptcies. But begining this month that will become old history. The commercial market is about to melt down the reasons for this I will enumerate shortly.
Today I talked with a Money guy in San Francisco and he told me something I have been hearing for over a month. He is a Californian and knows the LA market well. What he told me reflects the smart money on the street today.
In a nut shell here is what he said, "We see the SFR market collapsing another 20 points here in the state. We have changed our buying pattern to Non-performing Notes on Multi-family properties nation wide. We are taking the money out the state. The perception that California will recover first is flawed. We will purse cash flow now. We no longer want any retail regardless of location or commercial."
I have heard this two dozen times over the past 72 hours and this tells me that something is up. I know from past research the Refinance funds available for commercial & Retail North American ops is about
What happens to the rest of the commercial refies? Where will the property owners turn and how will most with
Then there is the issue of failures. Many projects will fail and the banks will step in and file foreclosure. Normally this is somebody’s Yahoo moment however this time there is a vile problem in the foreclosure path. Remember the securitization stuff. Most commercial loans tend to exceed the limit a bank can lend to one client so the banks band together in participation and fund loans to sub division, high rise, and strip commercial center developers.
The resulting loans are then sold off to wall street firms that bundle them into Bonds that become tools in the CDS CBO and other markets.
So on the day of the BK or Foreclosure hearing who will show up to represent the lender. Not 1 or 2 lawyers, maybe 20 or more. Talk about a Cluster ****. The commercial banks have a massive problem on their hands and regardless of what they say they are in big trouble.
Remember this when you are offered a Mezz B note on a Mega project. it is cheap because the sellers do not want the court room expenses!
We have been in this business long enough to know the signs of impending seed changes. The commercial and retail market place has until now only been marginally impacted by the large numbers of lost tenants and business bankruptcies. But begining this month that will become old history. The commercial market is about to melt down the reasons for this I will enumerate shortly.
Today I talked with a Money guy in San Francisco and he told me something I have been hearing for over a month. He is a Californian and knows the LA market well. What he told me reflects the smart money on the street today.
In a nut shell here is what he said, "We see the SFR market collapsing another 20 points here in the state. We have changed our buying pattern to Non-performing Notes on Multi-family properties nation wide. We are taking the money out the state. The perception that California will recover first is flawed. We will purse cash flow now. We no longer want any retail regardless of location or commercial."
Twenty minutes afte I posted this message this came out on CNBCUS Home Prices Seen Falling 40% Overall: Analysthttp://www.cnbc.com/id/31713614
I have heard this two dozen times over the past 72 hours and this tells me that something is up. I know from past research the Refinance funds available for commercial & Retail North American ops is about
1/3of the funding required!!
What happens to the rest of the commercial refies? Where will the property owners turn and how will most with
greatlyreduced borrowing power and lower credit status get replacement funds.?
Then there is the issue of failures. Many projects will fail and the banks will step in and file foreclosure. Normally this is somebody’s Yahoo moment however this time there is a vile problem in the foreclosure path. Remember the securitization stuff. Most commercial loans tend to exceed the limit a bank can lend to one client so the banks band together in participation and fund loans to sub division, high rise, and strip commercial center developers.
The resulting loans are then sold off to wall street firms that bundle them into Bonds that become tools in the CDS CBO and other markets.
So on the day of the BK or Foreclosure hearing who will show up to represent the lender. Not 1 or 2 lawyers, maybe 20 or more. Talk about a Cluster ****. The commercial banks have a massive problem on their hands and regardless of what they say they are in big trouble.
Remember this when you are offered a Mezz B note on a Mega project. it is cheap because the sellers do not want the court room expenses!
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