24 months of Mayhem and what?

After doing this job for past 2 years I have to admit there are more problems today than there was in October of 2007. Back then only the wizened old guys and ladies were telling that they were going to sit on their cash because blood in the streets was coming. I was upset cause the client bought a gold mine instead of the hotel I was trying like hell to sell him.

That man was and is one of the smartest or luckiest people I have ever met, and he was right!

Bulk REO business is a full blown mess! The reason my friend related to me over cake recently was simple, "Government" or as he put it lack there of.

You see in order for market so prosper you have to enable the market. This does not mean regulation or government stimulus. What it means in this case is government have to allow natural processes to happen.

Dr. Housing bubble has been documenting the California shadow inventories and he has come to the conclusion that banks are keeping large in fact majority of foreclosed homes off the market. They are in fact doing this to buy time to keep their institutions day or reckoning in the future as opposed to shutting down the bank next week.

The problem here is the banks that is failed banks inventories have been accumulating in other banks that is the ones that the FDIC has brought in to buy these failed banks assets while the FDIC has been warehousing all the rest.

The Government is building a dam with the intention of preserving the economy by preventing the timely reentry into the market of this tidal wave to SFRs, multi-family and soon commercial retail properties. How big is the Governments dam? I got to see 1 cove and it is more than a Trillion, people that is one of the five categories and it is over a trillion.

My friend has not bought anything yet, and I asked him over cake why. He looked at me and said the beginning of the "blood in the streets" has not started yet. I choked, and asked him when this going to start. He said, "watch the dollar" it will start when the "dollars value" is clearly in steady decline.

I wonder if he is right?

In the mean time I have 1000 Apartment buildings to sell at less than 50 cents on the dollar any takers?